Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
