Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
