Everyday Homicides in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The typical figure of daily killings each month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to new government data. But, security experts have cautioned that homicide data could fail to signal enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Reduction in Daily Figures

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when the President took the presidency in September of last year. This information was shared by the chief of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded during these months is extremely important,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that last month the lowest number of murders were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Intense drug cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly militarised operations to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide rate soar in the past few years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than the US. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key elements of the President's security plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater cooperation between various authorities.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide data to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent information if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not valid for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the will to accurately identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was additionally an issue because it might hide days when there were especially elevated numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily average renders spikes of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can highlight the success of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and November 2025 for serious crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

However despite these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-fueled violence. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of youth protested in the capital and across the country to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to build a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely effective, socially it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas remarked.